From an outsider’s perspective, it looks as though Joe Biden will not be able to sustain a lead far enough into next year to sustain momentum.  Obviously, a vacuum would be created in the moderate wing of the Democratic Party if he were to drop out.  Proceeding from there leaves us to speculate on who will take his place.

Two possibilities:

First, someone will emerge from within the group of announced candidates.  This is difficult because none present as moderate as Biden; in fact, he has been forced to move so far left that he looks agonizingly uncomfortable when he tries to pass off as authentic.  He does not seem to have a clear grasp of the left agenda, which is much more important to his campaign than him actually believing his rhetoric.

HOWEVER…watch out for Mayor Pete.

Buttigieg handles himself like Bill Clinton (who handled himself like JFK).  That is to say, Buttigieg is posing.  He has groomed himself to be the consummate politician, never losing his place and always displaying an even temperament. Any anger is self-righteous, designed to magnify his victimhood to an eager audience, dispensed cautiously, frugally, and always designed to generate an immediate applause.  It’s difficult to see his platform through the facade that is his stage personality.  Under a microscope and ignoring the larger-than-life character he is trying to create, one can see a candidate on the far left.  Just how far is impossible to know, for a candidate like the Mayor is never WYSIWYG.  To paraphrase one of Buttigieg’s favorite politicians, you’ll have to vote for him in order to see what he is.

Mayor Pete has decided that his path to victory is one that has proved successful for only the most recent candidates.  The American people have proved that they are willing to vote for a candidate with no discernible political background (Obama, Trump).  The most important quality for recent Democrats seems to be stage presence (Clinton, Obama).  In this quality, Buttigieg shines. If he can continue to oppose Warren and Sanders as being too far left, while simultaneously evading most of the major economic issues, he could be in the perfect position to fill the void left by Biden’s exit.  Add to this the Mayor’s consistent attack at the religious right for be un-Christian (which is clearly an attempt to pick off any straggling evangelicals) and he could be formidable.

Second: if Mayor Pete can’t fill the Biden void, then all bets are off.  Sanders and Warren appear determined to campaign ’till the bitter end and split the socialist vote.  That only leaves an apparently impotent group of remaining announced candidates — or a vast array of non-announced candidates that are constantly being touted by Democrat operatives.

As always, this should be interesting to watch.